Cybersecurity Threats to India’s Digital Ecosystem in 2026
Introduction
The digital landscape of the nation has reached a critical point in its evolution. The rapid adoption of technologies such as cloud computing, mobile payment systems, artificial intelligence, and smart infrastructure has led to a high degree of integration between digital systems and governance, commercial activity, and everyday life. As dependence on these systems continues to grow, a wide range of cyber threats has emerged that are complex, multi-layered, and closely interconnected. By 2026, cyber security threats directed at India are expected to include an increasing number of targeted, well-organised, and strategic cyber attacks. These attacks are likely to focus on exploiting the trust placed in technology, institutions, automation, and the fast pace of technological change.
1. Social Engineering 2.0: Hyper-Personalised AI Phishing & Mobile Banking Malware
Cybercriminals have moved from generalised methods to hyper-targeted attacks through AI-based psychological manipulation. In addition to social media profiles, data breaches, and digital/tracking footprints, the latest types of cybercrimes expected in 2026 will involve AI-based analysis of this information to create and increase the use of hyper-targeted phishing emails.
Phishing emails are capable of impersonating banks, employers, and even family members, with all the same regionally or culturally relevant tone, language, and context as would be done if these persons were sending the emails in person.
With malicious applications disguised as legitimate service apps, cybercriminals have the ability to intercept and capture One-Time Passwords (OTPs), hijack user sessions, and steal money from user accounts in a matter of minutes.
These types of attempts or attacks are successful not only because of their technical sophistication, but because they take advantage of human trust at scale, giving them an almost limitless reach into the financial systems of people around the world through their computers and mobile devices.
2. Cloud and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
As Indian organisations increasingly migrate to cloud infrastructure, cloud misconfigurations are emerging as a major cybersecurity risk. Weak identity controls, exposed storage, and improper access management can allow attackers to bypass traditional network defences. Alongside this, supply chain attacks are expected to intensify in 2026.
In supply chain attacks, cybercriminals compromise a trusted software vendor or service provider to infiltrate multiple downstream organisations. Even entities with strong internal security can be affected through third-party dependencies. For India’s startup ecosystem, government digital platforms, and IT service providers, this presents a systemic risk. Strengthening vendor risk management and visibility across digital supply chains will be essential.
3. Threats to IoT and Critical Infrastructure
By implementing smart cities, digital utilities, and connected public services, IoT has opened itself up to increased levels of operational technology (OT) through India’s initiative. However, there is currently a lack of adequate security in the form of strong authentication, encryption, and update methods available on many IoT devices. By the year 2026, attackers are going to be able to exploit these vulnerabilities much more than they already are.
Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure such as energy, transportation, healthcare, and telecom systems have far-reaching consequences that extend well beyond data loss; they directly affect the provision of essential services, can damage public safety, and raise concerns over national security. Effectively securing critical infrastructure needs to involve dedicated security solutions to deal with the specific needs of critical infrastructure, in contrast to conventional IT security.
4. Hidden File Vectors and Stealth Payload Delivery
SVG File Abuse in Stealth Attacks
Cybercriminals are continually searching for ways to bypass security filters, and hidden file vectors are emerging as a preferred tactic. One such method involves the abuse of SVG (Scalable Vector Graphics) files. Although commonly perceived as harmless image files, SVGs can contain embedded scripts capable of executing malicious actions.
By 2026, SVG-based attacks are expected to be used in phishing emails, cloud file sharing, and messaging platforms. Because these files often bypass traditional antivirus and email security systems, they provide an effective stealth delivery mechanism. Indian organisations will need to rethink assumptions about “safe” file formats and strengthen deep content inspection capabilities.
5. Quantum-Era Cyber Risks and “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” Attacks
Although practical quantum computers are still emerging, quantum-era cyber risks are already a present-day concern. Adversaries are believed to be intercepting and storing encrypted data now with the intention of decrypting it in the future once quantum capabilities mature—a strategy known as “harvest now, decrypt later.” This poses serious long-term confidentiality risks.
Recognising this threat, the United States took early action during the Biden administration through National Security Memorandum 10, which directed federal agencies to prepare for the transition to quantum-resistant cryptography. For India, similar foresight is essential, as sensitive government communications, financial data, health records, and intellectual property could otherwise be exposed retrospectively. Preparing for quantum-safe cryptography will therefore become a strategic priority in the coming years.
6. AI Trust Manipulation and Model Exploitation
Poisoning the Well – Direct Attacks on AI Models
As artificial intelligence systems are increasingly used for decision-making—ranging from fraud detection and credit scoring to surveillance and cybersecurity—attackers are shifting focus from systems to models themselves. “Poisoning the well” refers to attacks that manipulate training data, feedback mechanisms, or input environments to distort AI outputs.
In the context of India's rapidly growing digital ecosystem, compromised AI models can result in biased decisions, false security alerts or denying legitimate services. The big problem with these types of attacks is they may occur without triggering conventional security measures. Transparency, integrity and continuous monitoring of AI systems will be key to creating and maintaining stakeholder confidence in the decision-making process of the automated systems.
Recommendations
Despite the increasing sophistication of malicious cyber actors, India is entering this phase with a growing level of preparedness and institutional capacity. The country has strengthened its cyber security posture through dedicated mechanisms and relevant agencies such as the Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre, which play a central role in coordination, threat response, and capacity building. At the same time, sustained collaboration among government bodies, non-governmental organisations, technology companies, and academic institutions has expanded cyber security awareness, skill development, and research. These collective efforts have improved detection capabilities, response readiness, and public resilience, placing India in a stronger position to manage emerging cyber threats and adapt to the evolving digital environment.
Conclusion
By 2026, complexity, intelligence, and strategic intent will increasingly define cyber threats to the digital ecosystem. Cyber criminals are expected to use advanced methods of attack, including artificial intelligence assisted social engineering and the exploitation of cloud supply chain risks. As these threats evolve, adversaries may also experiment with quantum computing techniques and the manipulation of AI models to create new ways of influencing and disrupting digital systems. In response, the focus of cybersecurity is shifting from merely preventing breaches to actively protecting and restoring digital trust. While technical controls remain essential, they must be complemented by strong cybersecurity governance, adherence to regulatory standards, and sustained user education. As India continues its digital transformation, this period presents a valuable opportunity to invest proactively in cybersecurity resilience, enabling the country to safeguard citizens, institutions, and national interests with confidence in an increasingly complex and dynamic digital future.
References
- https://www.seqrite.com/india-cyber-threat-report-2026/
- https://www.uscsinstitute.org/cybersecurity-insights/blog/ai-powered-phishing-detection-and-prevention-strategies-for-2026
- https://www.expresscomputer.in/guest-blogs/cloud-security-risks-that-should-guide-leadership-in-2026/130849/
- https://www.hakunamatatatech.com/our-resources/blog/top-iot-challenges
- https://csrc.nist.gov/csrc/media/Presentations/2024/u-s-government-s-transition-to-pqc/images-media/presman-govt-transition-pqc2024.pdf
- https://www.cyber.nj.gov/Home/Components/News/News/1721/214
Related Blogs
Misinformation is a scourge in the digital world, making the most mundane experiences fraught with risk. The threat is considerably heightened in conflict settings, especially in the modern era, where geographical borders blur and civilians and conflict actors alike can take to the online realm to discuss -and influence- conflict events. Propaganda can complicate the narrative and distract from the humanitarian crises affecting civilians, while also posing a serious threat to security operations and law and order efforts. Sensationalised reports of casualties and manipulated portrayals of military actions contribute to a cycle of violence and suffering.
A study conducted by MIT found the mere thought of sharing news on social media reduced the ability to judge whether a story was true or false; the urge to share outweighed the consideration of accuracy (2023). Cross-border misinformation has become a critical issue in today's interconnected world, driven by the rise of digital communication platforms. To effectively combat misinformation, coordinated international policy frameworks and cooperation between governments, platforms, and global institutions are created.
The Global Nature of Misinformation
Cross-border misinformation is false or misleading information that spreads across countries. Out-of-border creators amplify information through social media and digital platforms and are a key source of misinformation. Misinformation can interfere with elections, and create serious misconceptions about health concerns such as those witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic, or even lead to military conflicts.
The primary challenge in countering cross-border misinformation is the difference in national policies, legal frameworks and governance policies of social media platforms across various jurisdictions. Examining the existing international frameworks, such as cybersecurity treaties and data-sharing agreements used for financial crimes might be helpful to effectively address cross-border misinformation. Adapting these approaches to the digital information ecosystem, nations could strengthen their collective response to the spread of misinformation across borders. Global institutions like the United Nations or regional bodies like the EU and ASEAN can work together to set a unified response and uniform international standards for regulation dealing with misinformation specifically.
Current National and Regional Efforts
Many countries have taken action to deal with misinformation within their borders. Some examples include:
- The EU’s Digital Services Act has been instrumental in regulating online intermediaries and platforms including marketplaces, social networks, content-sharing platforms, app stores, etc. The legislation aims to prevent illegal and harmful activities online and the spread of disinformation.
- The primary legislation that governs cyberspace in India is the IT Act of 2000 and its corresponding rules (IT Rules, 2023), which impose strict requirements on social media platforms to counter misinformation content and enable the traceability of the creator responsible for the origin of misinformation. Platforms have to conduct due diligence, failing which they risk losing their safe harbour protection. The recently-enacted DPDP Act of 2023 indirectly addresses personal data misuse that can be used to contribute to the creation and spread of misinformation. Also, the proposed Digital India Act is expected to focus on “user harms” specific to the online world.
- In the U.S., the Right to Editorial Discretion and Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act place the responsibility for regulating misinformation on private actors like social media platforms and social media regulations. The US government has not created a specific framework addressing misinformation and has rather encouraged voluntary measures by SMPs to have independent policies to regulate misinformation on their platforms.
The common gap area across these policies is the absence of a standardised, global framework for addressing cross-border misinformation which results in uneven enforcement and dependence on national regulations.
Key Challenges in Achieving International Cooperation
Some of the key challenges identified in achieving international cooperation to address cross-border misinformation are as follows:
- Geopolitical tensions can emerge due to the differences in political systems, priorities, and trust issues between countries that hinder attempts to cooperate and create a universal regulation.
- The diversity in approaches to internet governance and freedom of speech across countries complicates the matters further.
- Further complications arise due to technical and legal obstacles around the issues of sovereignty, jurisdiction and enforcement, further complicating matters relating to the monitoring and removal of cross-border misinformation.
CyberPeace Recommendations
- The UN Global Principles For Information Integrity Recommendations for Multi-stakeholder Action, unveiled on 24 June 2024, are a welcome step for addressing cross-border misinformation. This can act as the stepping stone for developing a framework for international cooperation on misinformation, drawing inspiration from other successful models like climate change agreements, international criminal law framework etc.
- Collaborations like public-private partnerships between government, tech companies and civil societies can help enhance transparency, data sharing and accountability in tackling cross-border misinformation.
- Engaging in capacity building and technology transfers in less developed countries would help to create a global front against misinformation.
Conclusion
We are in an era where misinformation knows no borders and the need for international cooperation has never been more urgent. Global democracies are exploring solutions, both regulatory and legislative, to limit the spread of misinformation, however, these fragmented efforts fall short of addressing the global scale of the problem. Establishing a standardised, international framework, backed by multilateral bodies like the UN and regional alliances, can foster accountability and facilitate shared resources in this fight. Through collaborative action, transparent regulations, and support for developing nations, the world can create a united front to curb misinformation and protect democratic values, ensuring information integrity across borders.
References
- https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2023-10/A%20Model%20of%20Online%20Misinformation.pdf
- https://www.indiatoday.in/global/story/in-the-crosshairs-manufacturing-consent-and-the-erosion-of-public-trust-2620734-2024-10-21
- https://laweconcenter.org/resources/knowledge-and-decisions-in-the-information-age-the-law-economics-of-regulating-misinformation-on-social-media-platforms/
- https://www.article19.org/resources/un-article-19-global-principles-for-information-integrity/
Executive Summary:
A post on X (formerly Twitter) featuring an image that has been widely shared with misleading captions, claiming to show men riding an elephant next to a tiger in Bihar, India. This post has sparked both fascination and skepticism on social media. However, our investigation has revealed that the image is misleading. It is not a recent photograph; rather, it is a photo of an incident from 2011. Always verify claims before sharing.
Claims:
An image purporting to depict men riding an elephant next to a tiger in Bihar has gone viral, implying that this astonishing event truly took place.
Fact Check:
After investigation of the viral image using Reverse Image Search shows that it comes from an older video. The footage shows a tiger that was shot after it became a man-eater by forest guard. The tiger killed six people and caused panic in local villages in the Ramnagar division of Uttarakhand in January, 2011.
Before sharing viral posts, take a brief moment to verify the facts. Misinformation spreads quickly and it’s far better to rely on trusted fact-checking sources.
Conclusion:
The claim that men rode an elephant alongside a tiger in Bihar is false. The photo presented as recent actually originates from the past and does not depict a current event. Social media users should exercise caution and verify sensational claims before sharing them.
- Claim: The video shows people casually interacting with a tiger in Bihar
- Claimed On:Instagram and X (Formerly Known As Twitter)
- Fact Check: False and Misleading
Executive Summary:
A misleading video of a child covered in ash allegedly circulating as the evidence for attacks against Hindu minorities in Bangladesh. However, the investigation revealed that the video is actually from Gaza, Palestine, and was filmed following an Israeli airstrike in July 2024. The claim linking the video to Bangladesh is false and misleading.
Claims:
A viral video claims to show a child in Bangladesh covered in ash as evidence of attacks on Hindu minorities.
Fact Check:
Upon receiving the viral posts, we conducted a Google Lens search on keyframes of the video, which led us to a X post posted by Quds News Network. The report identified the video as footage from Gaza, Palestine, specifically capturing the aftermath of an Israeli airstrike on the Nuseirat refugee camp in July 2024.
The caption of the post reads, “Journalist Hani Mahmoud reports on the deadly Israeli attack yesterday which targeted a UN school in Nuseirat, killing at least 17 people who were sheltering inside and injuring many more.”
To further verify, we examined the video footage where the watermark of Al Jazeera News media could be seen, We found the same post posted on the Instagram account on 14 July, 2024 where we confirmed that the child in the video had survived a massacre caused by the Israeli airstrike on a school shelter in Gaza.
Additionally, we found the same video uploaded to CBS News' YouTube channel, where it was clearly captioned as "Video captures aftermath of Israeli airstrike in Gaza", further confirming its true origin.
We found no credible reports or evidence were found linking this video to any incidents in Bangladesh. This clearly implies that the viral video was falsely attributed to Bangladesh.
Conclusion:
The video circulating on social media which shows a child covered in ash as the evidence of attack against Hindu minorities is false and misleading. The investigation leads that the video originally originated from Gaza, Palestine and documents the aftermath of an Israeli air strike in July 2024.
- Claims: A video shows a child in Bangladesh covered in ash as evidence of attacks on Hindu minorities.
- Claimed by: Facebook
- Fact Check: False & Misleading
